CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sat 07 Jan 06:00 - Sun 08 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 06 Jan 22:37 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

Thunderstorms are forecast across the extreme southern Iberian Peninsula ...the Ionian and S Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Upper blocking continues ... with quasistationary upper high centered over the Baltic Sea region ... and a quasistationary upper cut-off low over the channel region. Cut-off cyclone over the S Iberian Peninsula is progged to drop southwards into N Algeria by Sunday 06Z. Upper low over the S Balkans should con tinue slowly eastwards across the S Black Sea/N Turkey. SFC charts are dominated by extensive high pressure area covering all but the very SW and SE portions of Europe ... where weak low-pressure centers should persist.

DISCUSSION

...SW Mediterranean...
Weakly unstable lapse rates are present in the lower portions of the air mass ahead of the Iberian upper low ... which is supported by GFS and NMM forecasts which assume EL's below the 500 hPa level. Current thinking is that lightning activity will be too sporadic/isolated for a TSTM area over the W Mediterranean.

Farther SW ... isolated TSTMS may occur over and S of SRN Iberia especially during the first half of the day near the upper thermal-low center.

...Ionian/Aegean Sea...
Scattered TSTMS should persist over the Ionian and Aegean Sea in weakly unstable air mass in the vicinity of the SE-European upper low. Deep shear will be moderately strong ... but minimal CAPE and diffuse low-level forcing for ascent suggest that organized severe threat will be rather low. However, strong wind gusts and small hail could occur.

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